Drift-validated futures signals. Daily Discord delivery. Real broker account. Real trades.
One drift-validated 3-component portfolio plus one live single-strategy edge, delivered daily at 17:00 ET via Discord webhook. Every signal you receive is what fires on a real $127K TopStepX account, publicly visible at aramid-live.pages.dev. 99% of "validated" retail edges fail our drift control. The ones that survive are what you get.
WHY US · NOT THEM
- Marketing claims, no published walk-forward stats
- Screenshots of cherry-picked trades
- No retraction log - failed strategies disappear
- "85% win rate" - calculated how? from when?
- No-refund policies + community-mod removals
- Sign-flip permutation passes, drift control never tried
- Drift-control (drift_p Null B) on every edge before deploy
- Live broker P&L feed - verify it yourself
- Public retraction log - 13 hypothesis classes killed in one day
- Anchored walk-forward, bootstrap PF CI, deflated Sharpe, CPCV
- 30-day money-back guarantee, no questions asked
- Cancel any time via self-serve Stripe portal - no contracts
PRICING
- Aramid Discord - public channels
- Live broker P&L feed (read-only)
- Public retraction log + methodology pages
- Daily summary of fired signals (next day)
- Daily 17:00 ET portfolio composition via Discord webhook
- Real-time entry/close alerts as the live account fires
- Tier-1 channel access in Aramid Discord (role assigned within 24h)
- 30-day money-back guarantee, no questions
- Email + Discord support (24h response)
- Everything in Tier-1
- Per-strategy signal feed (TS momentum, gcFriEdge1200, FOMC follow d60 - separately)
- Weekly methodology breakdown (validation runs, retractions, paper-track candidates)
- Premium-only Discord channel + direct DM access for signal-specific questions
- 30-day money-back guarantee, no questions
Soft-launch pricing. Cancel any time via self-serve Stripe portal. 7-day free trial on every paid tier.
METHODOLOGY · THE PRODUCT
The signals are downstream of the methodology. Today we tested 13 hypothesis classes against drift control. Only 3 survived. Here is what survives means.
Drift_p Null B
Sign-flip permutation cannot tell you if direction matters - it only tests whether any direction would profit. Drift control replaces the signal with random entries and asks: did your real signal beat coin-flip entries on the same bracket geometry? 99% of retail "edges" fail this gate. We require p < 0.05.
Anchored walk-forward
Every edge is split into 6 anchored folds with strict purging. We require >=4/6 folds positive on net P&L before any candidate progresses. The portfolio's flagship event-driven edge clears 5/6.
Deflated Sharpe (Bailey-LdP 2014)
Multi-trial selection bias inflates Sharpe ratios. We deflate by the number of trials run before this edge graduated. Headline Sharpe 0.71 raw becomes 0.63 after 5%-vol-target equal-weight. We publish the lower bound.
Combinatorial purged CV (de Prado AFML)
Standard k-fold CV leaks future information through overlapping windows. CPCV embargoes a buffer between train and test, then averages across all valid combinations. Block-bootstrap PF CIs are computed per fold, not on happy-path means.
Drift-demeaning rule
PEAD raw "alpha" looked great on mega-cap earnings beats - until drift-demeaning revealed 86% of it was bull-market beta in disguise. We catch this kind of artifact before deploy, not after.
Live broker validation
Every alert maps to a real order on a real $127K TopStepX account. Your subscription P&L is reconciled from actual broker close events, not retrospective bar marks. No "sim" gaming.
WHAT YOU RECEIVE
| Component | Source | Direction | Cadence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TS momentum (40 CME futures) | Moskowitz 2012 replication | long/short | monthly rebalance | Drift-validated |
| gcFriEdge1200 | Time-of-day pattern, GC | SHORT | Fri 12:00 ET | LIVE single edge - drift_p 0.0000, PF 1.989 |
| FOMC follow d60 | Event-driven, NQ/ES | follow | FOMC days, 60min | Drift-validated, paper-track |
Tier-1 receives the daily portfolio composition (the equal-weight 5%-vol-target mix). Premium receives each component as its own feed plus the weekly methodology breakdown.
LIVE TRACK RECORD
Every fill, every close, on a real TopStepX account. Public, read-only, updated in real time. Decide whether to subscribe based on what the account actually does.
FAQ
What is actually delivered?
Two things. (a) Daily 17:00 ET Discord webhook with the portfolio composition for the next session. (b) Real-time entry/close pings the moment the live account fires - timestamp, symbol, direction, entry price, stop, target, strategy name. You decide whether to mirror.
What if you have a losing month?
Our broker account is updated daily at aramid-live.pages.dev - you can see exactly how the portfolio is performing before you subscribe and at every renewal. We offer a 30-day money-back guarantee, no questions asked, so a bad first month costs you nothing if you decide it's not for you.
Can I unsubscribe any time?
Yes. Monthly billing, self-serve cancel through the Stripe portal. No contracts, no calls, no retention scripts.
Do I need a TopStepX account?
No. The signals are direction + entry + bracket. You can paper-trade, mirror on TopStepX/Apex/Tradovate/IBKR/Schwab, or simply observe to learn the methodology. We do not sell auto-execution (regulatory + prop-firm complexity).
What is drift_p Null B?
Sign-flip permutation answers "does direction matter?" by flipping every sign and seeing if PnL flips with it. It cannot detect a strategy that is profitable purely from drift (e.g. always-long in a bull market). Drift_p Null B replaces the signal with random direction at the same firing times and same bracket - then asks if the real signal beat random by enough that random rarely wins by chance. p < 0.05 is required. It is the single most predictive gate we use.
Why did you kill 13 hypothesis classes today?
Because they failed drift control. Cross-asset carry, rates carry, 105 stateful primitive factors, 115 directional 5-min factors, COT extreme positioning, microstructure on order book, raw PEAD - all looked alive in the headline backtest, all dead under drift control. The retraction log lists each. The fact that we keep killing things is why the survivors are worth watching.
Will signals fit my prop firm's rules?
It depends on firm + account size + daily-loss-limit. The portfolio is designed for a $127K TopStepX combine; the live single edge runs at 1 contract on full GC ($120 SL on MGC if you size down). Tell us your firm + size during checkout notes - we will flag specifics before your trial converts.
Will you scale to more strategies?
Only when they survive drift control. Premium subscribers see the paper-track candidates as they accumulate samples. We expect ~1-2 new components per quarter. Quality over quantity.